A Star in the Making? The Case for Volpe for AL ROY

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After all that controversy, the Yankees made the only decision they could: slotting 21-year-old breakout sensation Anthony Volpe as the youngest Opening Day shortstop since The Captain. 



Volatile is the word I would use to describe the shortstop position over the last nine years, with the highs of late 2010's Didi, then to the Gleyber Torres experiment, to the IKF era, and everything in between. Much of the fanbase wanted a big fish solution at the position with the likes of Carlos Correa and Trea Turner, but the front office stood pat that their young prospects would fill the void. However, the Yankees played it slow with their young prospects, only bringing up Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera at the last possible minute in 2022. After another disappointing October, the fans were chomping at the bit for Peraza and Volpe to unseat IKF and boy, did the Jersey native deliver, taking the starting spot by storm. I will make the case that making the Opening Day roster is not enough: he will make a serious run for the American League Rookie of the Year award.

 

Currently sitting at the second-best odds behind Baltimore 3B/SS Gunnar Henderson, this won't be the biggest surprise, but looking deeper into the award's history, Volpe should flip those odds quickly.

 

Let's start by looking at the last decade of MLB ROY winners: 15 position players, four pitchers, and 1 Ohtani-sized unicorn. Offensive players have dominated the honor with an even split of infielders versus outfielders to win the award; Volpe checks that spot. Now looking at production, market size, team success, and previous MLB experience, the "AL ROY Mold" looks something like this:

  • Infielder in a top 7 Nielson-rated market on an 88-win playoff team who played 130 games and 550 plate appearances in their first trip to the show.
  • A WAR of 4.5, and slash line of .285/.367/.531 with over 20 HRs and above 60 RBIs

 

Let's start with the background; Volpe should clear the first line as the Yankees are the number one market, are projected to win 99 games per PECOTA, and will make the playoffs barring a disaster. If healthy, Volpe should also play 130 games as the team's starting shortstop. Fangraphs' projections have Volpe as .232/.312/.396 with 14 HRs and 61 RBI, and his Spring training stats hover around .314/.417/.647 with 3 HRs and 5 RBIs. Those HRs and RBIs over 550 PA would be 27 HRs and 44 RBI. With a spring training opponent's strength equivalent to the AA level, it is doubtful he matches those stats (HR total, at least) in the regular season; however, FanGraphs still sells him short. IKF produced a .261/.314/.327 slash this past year for the club, and from what we've seen, it's hard to imagine Volpe can't at worst get close to that production by playing a similar role.

 

Volpe is slotted to bat low in the lineup, where he will not have high-stress at-bats and will likely benefit from batting close to the potent top of the Bombers' lineup. Even if a batting average of .280 is too much to reach for the young Yankee shortstop, he should get close enough to stay in the race.

 

He also brings a new athletic jolt to the offense, especially in the baserunning department. Fair or not, the Bombers are not known for their athleticism on the basepath. Volpe has shown the ability to swipe bases early on in his career, with 89 stolen bases in the minors and five already this spring. It will contrast the ordinarily big slugging Yankees and a new change to the club's characteristics that will be highlighted every time Volpe racks up a stolen base.

Chris O'Meara - AP Photo

On paper, Volpe should have a real shot at the award, but let me sweeten the pot with something; even if Volpe falls significantly short of those numbers referenced above, he still will make a run at the honor if not win it anyways. Baseball fans are painfully aware that the BBWAA doesn't always pick the best player on paper for any of their awards *cough* 2017 AL MVP *cough*, as "The Narrative" heavily influences their voting. For once, this should help the Yankees, as there is no one with a better story this year than Volpe.

 

Anthony Volpe is a local product, a first-round pick for the New York Yankees. He is getting Jeter allegories due to his age and position; the story was already printed before he stepped into the batter box in Tampa. The report from Michael Kay, stemming from Volpe's father, is the icing on the cake for his 2023 AL ROY campaign. Early this offseason, Volpe's father advised Anthony to take a break and rest before the next season, and he took his dad's advice at the time. However, GM Brian Cashman called the 20-year-old that night, telling him the SS job was wide open and his to take in camp. Before the break of dawn the following day, Mr. Volpe heard Anthony leaving their New Jersey home, and when he called his son wondering where he was going, Anthony told him he was on the way to Tampa to train to take the starting job. With these stories and the viral videos of his reaction to making the roster shown below, he is setting up to be a darling to the fans and media alike. 


He additionally is getting rave reviews from not just fans and his teammates but his opponents as well; here is just one of the examples from this spring:


Getting respect from your opponents at such a young age will only further his case, but how the Yankees handled the Volpe situation might do the most to catapult him into the public stage. Instead of embracing the success of their appointed savior, Cashman and the rest of the Yankees brass made every effort to suggest Volpe's future would continue in Scranton. The tactic most likely intended to slow the hype train for Volpe, but it only brought it to a fever pitch. The Yankees Shortstop saga only brought this topic to the forefront of every discussion about this season. Now the stage is set and magnifying every at-bat for the newest Bomber. If Volpe can hold onto the starting job and get close to the previous production of former Rookie of the Year winners, his candidacy will be hard to deny.

 

We will see how right (or wrong) I get this, and I plan on revisiting this midseason and end of the season, so stay tuned!

 

Article by: Maxx Hotton

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