What Luis Severino must do to avoid a sophomore slump
At
just 21 years old, Luis Severino made his highly anticipated MLB debut against
the Boston Red Sox in Yankee Stadium on August 5th. Severino went on
to have a marvelous debut despite only going five innings. He struck out 7
Boston hitters allowing 2 runs, including a homer to David Ortiz. This was only
the beginning to stellar first season Severino enjoyed where he would go 5-3
with an ERA of 2.89. Coming into 2016 with incredibly high expectations where
some expect him to anchor the staff and become the ace, he has gotten off to a
slow start. But coming off a strong start last night against Oakland with
plenty of time to have a great season, here are 5 things Severino has to do to
avoid the dreaded sophomore slump.
1. Get ahead in the count
This
should be a sticking point for every pitcher as it really sets the tone for
each start. For Severino, these numbers absolutely jump out at me. To this
point in his career, opposing hitters are hitting .346 off Severino when they’re
ahead in the count and .298 when they’re even. To further break down his
numbers, below is a table of what hitters are doing against him when they’re
ahead in the count, or even with the count. I simply omitted 3-0 and 3-1
because although these numbers are small sample sizes, there was hardly any
data for those two counts.
COUNT
|
AB
|
H
|
2B
|
HR
|
AVG
|
SLG
|
0-0
|
33
|
13
|
3
|
1
|
.394
|
.576
|
1-0
|
13
|
8
|
0
|
0
|
.615
|
.615
|
1-1
|
30
|
13
|
5
|
0
|
.433
|
.600
|
2-0
|
11
|
7
|
2
|
2
|
.636
|
1.364
|
2-1
|
22
|
6
|
2
|
1
|
.273
|
.500
|
Inversely,
Severino tends to assert his dominance over hitters when he gets ahead in the count;
hitters are hitting just .150 off him. He also seems to put hitters away with
ease when he has 2 strikes on them, so I included those numbers as well. Here’s
a further breakdown of the numbers.
COUNT
|
AB
|
H
|
2B
|
HR
|
AVG
|
SLG
|
0-1
|
23
|
7
|
1
|
1
|
.304
|
.478
|
0-2
|
32
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
.063
|
.250
|
1-2
|
52
|
7
|
0
|
1
|
.135
|
.192
|
2-2
|
73
|
14
|
3
|
3
|
.192
|
.356
|
3-2
|
29
|
7
|
1
|
1
|
.241
|
.379
|
Overall,
Severino has to get ahead in the count early and often in the game. He tends to
struggle in the first inning of games (more on this below), so if he can locate
his pitches well from the start, he can string together solid outings.
2. Throw a scoreless first inning
For
no apparent reason whatsoever, Severino’s worst inning thus far in his career
is the first inning. Perhaps he comes in anxious, but his career ERA is 6.43 in
the first inning and hitters are hitting .321 against him. Granted, this is
where he faces some of the best hitters in the order, but if Severino wants to
avoid the sophomore slump, he is going to have to get through the first inning
unscathed. And of the 11 homers Severino has served up to this point, 4 of those
have come in the first inning.
Now,
Severino’s first inning woes look to have improved through 3 starts this year
as he’s only allowed 1 run in the first inning out of the 9 total runs he’s
allowed this year (all earned).
3. Establish the slider
Severino’s
repertoire consists of 3 pitches that he throws consistently: a fastball, changeup and slider. He
also sneaks in a cutting fastball occasionally but he usage of this pitch is sparse.
The common scouting report of Severino is that his live moving fastball in the
mid to upper 90’s is his best pitch, and his hard changeup thrown in the upper
80’s is a plus pitch at the big league level. However, his slider tends to spin
on him and hang across the middle of the plate. We’ve seen this pitch get him
into some trouble already this season when Mark Canha drilled a hanging slider
into the seats in his last start. When his slider is moving to its potential,
Severino has 3 above average pitches, and that is what can elevate him to ace
status.
4. Avoid the big inning
When
I say that Severino must avoid the big inning to put together a solid season, I
mean pitches-wise just as much as I mean runs-wise. Severino tends to allow a
string of 2 or 3 hits in innings where he allows a run or two, and this is what
gets him into trouble from a pitches standpoint. Any inning where he allows a few
hits and a run or two throwing 20+ pitches is a tough inning that happens far
too often for the young talented pitcher. Obviously, these innings will happen,
but if he can cut down on innings where his pitch count elevates, he’ll finish
games with a better looking stat line. This is also a major reason Severino has not
been able to get deep in games in his career so far (more on that below).
5. Get deep into games
In
Severino’s 14 career starts, 11 in 2015 and 3 in 2016, Sevy has only gotten
through 7 innings just once, in his final start of 2015. This was one of two
starts last season in which Severino did not walk a batter. Now, Severino has
had impeccable command thus far in 2016 with 11 strikeouts against just 1 walk,
compared to 56 strikeouts to 22 walks in 2015. Consequently, he has allowed
more hits per 9 innings this season (15.0) compared to 7.68 per 9 in 2015. So for
Severino to get deep into games, he is going to have to do a combination of
numbers 1-4 in this article.
Conclusion
The
biggest thing Severino needs to do is command his pitches in his sophomore
season as a big leaguer. If he hits his spots that are called from Brian McCann
– who in my opinion is the best game caller in the league – then he should
enjoy an abundance of success and turn things around from his slow start.
Severino’s slow start is so frustrating for Yankee fans due to our
astronomically high expectations for the 22 year-old. But it’s early in the
season, and I fully expect him to turn things around and become a front-line
starter by season’s end, we just need to be patient with the kid.
Article
by: Chad Raines
Follow
me on twitter @Chad_Rain
Follow
the BBB on twitter @BronxBomberBlog
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