Where the Yankees stand
By: Nick Scott
Yankees
Sign Chase Headley
Welcome news finally
befell the New York Yankees world today as the team brought back the slick
fielding third baseman on a 4 year/$52 million contract. Simple math shows us
that the Yankees value Headley as $13 million a year.
Had Headley played a
full season the way he played with the Yankees he would’ve hit roughly 16
homeruns and totally 140 hits. This is certainly above average. Don’t believe
me? Headley posted an OPS+ of 119 with the Yankees. Obviously he was 19 points
above league average, but get this – Pablo Sandoval had an OPS+ of 111 last
year and is generally accepted to be a star. Thus, the Yankees did pretty good
to sign Headley to a 4yr/$52mil deal when a technically statistically inferior
play got 5yr/$95mil. To really drive the point home, remember, A-Rod is getting
$27 million a year as a ‘3rd Basemen’ and we all know Headley is far
better than he is.
A few other notes,
Headley hit .262 with the Pinstripes and walked more times in 58 games with us
(29) than his 77 games with the Padres (22). This is clear offensive
improvement – walking seven more times in 19 less games isn’t a huge deal, but
shouldn’t be forgotten. Additionally his defense is just incredible and anyone
who has watched him man the hot corner knows this. Simply put, I think Headley was
the victim of a bad lineup, huge ballpark, and a few injuries the last two
years in San Diego.
In sumation, I honestly
do believe he has the potential to hit 30 homeruns playing half his games in
Yankee Stadium. Do I think he will? I wouldn’t bet on it, but he certainly has
all the right tools as a hitter to hit around 20 shots and I see him getting
back to hitting for an average around .275. My prediction for his season?
.270 AVG.
22 HR
90 RBI
122 OPS+
How
do the Yankees look now?
Headley really makes
that infield that much better. The Yankees won’t have to give an unproven guy
like Rob Refsynder a shot and this is huge, considering I have heard more than
one place the ‘surging’ second basemen has been far overhyped and has real
defensive difficulties and isn’t that advanced of a hitter. I prefer we leave
the infield to surer things for right now, after all, when was the last time a
Yankee offensive prospect really turned into a star? Jose Pirela showed he can
hit at the big league level though and I think he should certainly be given the
bench role over Refsynder.
Thus the infield looks
like it will be Teixeira-Prado-Gregorius-Headley. On first look it doesn’t
appear to be all that glamorous. However, this is definitely one of the best
defensive infields the Yankees have had in a while. We all know that Teixeira
is the best defensive 1B in the league when healthy and that Prado and Headley
turned plenty heads with the leather the flashed in the infield once acquired
by the team. Gregorius actually has below average defensive numbers, but he
clearly has all the potential to improve and really anybody will be better at
short than Jeter has been the last few years.
It might not be a bad
group at the plate either. Teixeira is a huge wild card. When he’s healthy he’s
a threat to go deep multiple times a game and sees a lot of pitches. However,
he has very real health concerns, though I should note most his injuries
towards the end of ’14 were pretty fluky (dizziness, getting cleated, etc.).
Prado and Headley will both like hit around .270 and hit somewhere between
15-20 homeruns. When we account for injury risk, these guys are definitely the
best hitters the Yankees have inside the outfield grass. As far as Gregorius
goes, anything he does will be plus, because he’s regressed heavily from his
first full season and that’s a big red flag.
It seems like this is
for sure the infield the team will roll with going into 2015. Yes, I gave a
very positive outlook on the four, but I still have big concerns for the
offense. We have a lot of contact oriented guys, but don’t have a reliable
slugger outside of Brian McCann and if healthy Mark Teixeira. Carlos Beltran
has turned out to be a mess. He struggled with injury all year and didn’t hit
at all when healthy. Coupled with the fact he’s only getting older and the man
doesn’t hustle at all, I have no reason to expect anything more than what we
saw last year out of him. Additionally, it seems like his time as a playable
right fielder has come to an end. This creates a jam at DH between him and the
equally defensively deficient Alex Rodriguez. I have no clue how this will be
resolved and while the Yankees won’t do it, one of them, if not both need to
go. These are two guys with egos who can’t play or stay healthy and the team
would just be better off without them.
All in all it seems the
offense is going to need big years out of Tex, McCann, Prado, Headley, and
Ellsbury. I think the last three are reliable, but we really need Teixeira and
McCann to hit like we paid them too this year and while I can’t blame many for
doubting they can, I will choose to be optimistic and predict 60 homeruns
between the too. Yep. Bold.
Obviously the Yankees
need starting pitching though and I’m sure they will pursue some. I am starting
to have doubts Max Scherzer will be the answer though he should be. Be sure to
keep an eye out for when I discuss this and other pitching solutions for the
Yankees squad later this week, but until then thanks for reading all and happy
Headley Monday!
All statistics courtesy
of Baseball-Reference
Follow me
@RealYanksFans for more updates and opinions on the New York Yankees.
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